North Korea's recent declara¬tion that it has joined the elite club of nations possess¬ing nuclear weapons, a group that now numbers nine, may just be the calm before the mush¬room cloud.
Arms control officials estimate that up to 40 other countries now have the technology to construct nuclear weap¬ons, and some of them probably have the materials they need as well.
The rise of new nuclear powers in the Middle East and Asia could lead to a new age of nuclear proliferation, arms control specialists say. Officials worry that nervous heads of state, seeing their neighbors' nuclear ambitions, may be tempted to go nuclear and enhance their security, rather than obey interna¬tional atomic constraints.
In recent years, the nuclear genie has begun to slip out of the bottle. Uranium prospecting has surged dramatically, increasing from dozens of companies to hundreds worldwide. Egypt currently is reviving its nuclear power program. Australia, Argentina, and South Africa reportedly are pursuing similar plans.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the world's nuclear watch¬dog, assembled hundreds of worldwide authorities to debate tighter nuclear energy restrictions. the weeklong Vienna conference led to the adoption of eight key resolutions to help allay concerns of a domino effect of proliferation.
Military defense expert and former Dem¬ocratic Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia told the group, "These dangers are urgent. We are in a race between cooperation and catastrophe and, at this moment, the outcome is unclear."
The atomic agency has a dual, and poten¬tially contradictory, role as both nuclear
Policeman and promoter of safe nuclear power. The latter mandate includes operating technical aid programs with nearly 100 countries for civilian use. But such knowledge could be abused in a quest for weaponry.
The IAEA provides guidance to Paki¬stan, which triggered its own nuclear bomb in 1998, and previously assisted North Korea. Its current aid to Iran comprises 14 programs, including some designed to enhance the technology of a nuclear research lab and a nuclear facility in Bushehr. The primary rea¬son IAEA helps countries improve their nuclear-power technology is to avoid Ghernobyl-type accidents that could spew radioactive materials over entire regions.
Earlier this year,” the international community seems to be sleepwalking" down a path toward proliferation.
